“Speaker” Mike Johnson is playing with fire
It never seems to get talked about in the media, but there’s a reason why former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and current Speaker Mike Johnson keep caving on the budget and avoiding a shutdown. The reason is that the vulnerable House Republicans running for reelection in toss-up races think that a shutdown could cost them their seats. They’ve obviously made clear in private to McCarthy, and now to Johnson, that they won’t support any Speaker who allows a shutdown to happen.
The trouble is that the House Republicans in far right districts have very publicly made clear that they won’t support any Speaker who doesn’t do a shutdown. They already ousted McCarthy for it, and now they’re talking openly about ousting Johnson.
But Mike Johnson is nonetheless making clear that he intends to cave on the budget and avert a shutdown. This isn’t surprising. If Johnson alienates the House Republicans in far right districts, they’ll make a lot of noise but they may or may not oust him. But if Johnson alienates the House Republicans in toss-up districts, they’ll definitely oust him.
In any case, Johnson is playing with fire. House Republicans only settled on letting him become Speaker because they saw him as weak and powerless. Each faction figured they could bend him to their will as needed. But Johnson is already finding out that he can’t bend in two different incompatible directions at once. His speakership was always a no-win situation, and he’s already showing that he has no idea how to overcome those odds.
