Something big is happening in the George Santos criminal case
Remember George Santos? He’s still in Congress, because House Republicans are too afraid of losing their narrow majority if they expel him. But that’s not stopping the DOJ from moving forward with the criminal case against him. There was a routine pre-trial hearing today, and something interesting happened.
The DOJ is now asking the courts to delay the whole thing by several weeks, stating that a potential resolution to the case may be in the works. That’s vague, but it very much sounds like a plea deal is being negotiated. Given how screwed Santos is, this wouldn’t be particularly surprising. But it would be a remarkable turn of events in the political sphere.
Any such plea deal would, obviously, involve Santos going to prison and resigning from office. He’d just get less prison time than if he insisted on going to trial and ended up convicted. It would be a smart move on his part, given that he has a close to 100% chance of being convicted.
Here’s where it gets interesting. If Santos insists on going to trial, that would take several more months at least. Once he’s convicted, House Republicans would then presumably decide to reluctantly expel him, given that he wouldn’t be able to show up and vote anyway. In such case we might not be looking at a special election to replace him until sometime in the new year. If Santos drags it out long enough, we might not even end up having a special election, and we’d instead simply replace him in the regular November 2024 elections.
But if Santos cuts a deal now, then he’ll presumably be gone from Congress rather soon – and a special election would then follow. We could be gearing up for a high stakes election to replace Santos within a few months. The Republicans currently have a five seat majority, so the special election alone couldn’t hand majority control to the Democrats. But the Republicans always seem to be just one vote shy of ousting Kevin McCarthy from within. Losing Santos’ vote could lead to an internal crisis over whether to keep McCarthy, leaving House Republicans with an embarrassing mess.
It’s still possible that these negotiations between the DOJ and George Santos will fall through, and that he’ll end up back on a path to trial and conviction. But either way, Santos is going to prison, and his seat is going to be up for grabs sometime in the next fourteen months – and perhaps a lot sooner.
Now more than ever, it’s time you get to know Anna Kaplan, the leading Democratic candidate in George Santos’ district. Whether we end up replacing Santos in November 2024 or in a special election sooner, Kaplan will be the Democrat we’ll all end up rallying behind. You can sign up to volunteer or donate to her campaign here.
