So much for that one
From the very start I’ve said that RFK Jr would end up having zero impact on the 2024 election one way or the other. There were a couple reasons for this, from the skewed nature of three way polling, to the fact that most third party voters were never going to vote for a major party candidate anyway.
But just as we were told that we were supposed to panic about RFK Jr’s entry into the race, we’re now being told that we’re supposed to panic about RFK Jr’s exit from the race. In other words, we’re told to panic over everything. The thing is, the numbers are now spelling out exactly what I’ve been saying all along.
Nate Silver’s social commentary is increasingly ridiculous, but he still knows how to crunch numbers. To that end, he’s analyzed the 2024 race with and without the presence of RFK Jr, and he’s concluded that his exit from the race will have – wait for it – no impact on the outcome. The race without RFK Jr looks pretty much exactly like the race did with RFK Jr.
So there you have it. RFK Jr was nothing but a red herring from the start. He was never going to have an impact on this race, and sure enough, he’s now exited the race without any impact. 2024 was never going to come down to these kinds of sideshows. It was always going to come down to which side mobilized the most enthusiastically for their candidate – and that’s turned out to be us. Now we just have to keep it going for another seventy days, and we’ll win.
