Mike Pence is on shakier ground than we thought

| 5:15 pm EST January 14, 2018
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Once Donald Trump is finally ousted from the White House, Mike Pence is in line to inherit the presidency by default. However, Pence faces a number of pitfalls. He’s on the hook for obstruction of justice in the Trump-Russia scandal, so there’s no guarantee he’ll still be VP by the time Trump is removed. Even if Pence does make it into the presidency, he’ll have a difficult time surviving politically. It turns out he’s on far shakier political ground than we thought.

Let’s say that Mike Pence manages to avoid criminal charges in the Trump-Russia scandal, and he becomes president. If the Democrats take control of Congress in the midterms, they can still begin impeachment hearings against Pence for obstruction of justice. This would create an incredibly ugly scandal for Pence, and his survival would ultimately be based on whether or not he could remain politically viable during those proceedings. It would require a number of anti-Trump conservatives to support Pence. It’s long been assumed that they would do so, as Pence is more of a traditional conservative than Trump is. But now there’s a “Never Pence” movement underway, and it’s being led by a prominent conservative.

Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard revealed this week that he’s just as anti-Pence as he is anti-Trump. He tweeted “Never Pence” while linking to an article titled “Pence silent in wake of ‘shithole’ remark.” The clear implication from Kristol is that, after a year of watching Pence shamefully side with Trump, he doesn’t want anything to do with either of them.

So let’s say Mike Pence inherits the presidency and then finds himself being dragged through impeachment proceedings. If “Never Trump” conservatives like Kristol come out against Pence as well, it’ll increase the odds that the Democrats can use those proceedings to finish Pence off. Keep in mind that impeachment is at its core a political maneuver, and thus it’s subject to the laws of politics rather than the law of the land. If Pence doesn’t have people like Kristol on board, and he doesn’t, he’s in deep trouble whether he survives the Robert Mueller investigation or not.