Running out of pathways
Presidential general elections are a unique entity, given that they’re always decided by a relative handful of specific states. One way to look at it is that if you become popular enough on a national level, it can help carry you in those swing states. Another way to look at it is that if you can make yourself popular enough in those swing states, you don’t have to worry about how popular you are nationally.
There’s also the reality that if you can pick off a state that your opponent was expecting to win, it gives you a huge leg up in terms of electoral math. For instance Kamala Harris is still undoubtedly behind in Florida, but not by as much as she used to be. Imagine if she somehow managed to win Florida. Suddenly she’d only have to win a smaller percentage of the main swing states. To that end, Kamala just kicked off a national bus tour in Florida. She’s not on it, but many of her top surrogates are.
Every candidate has their “wouldn’t it be nice” states. Donald Trump and his people have spent this election cycle trying to put New Hampshire into play. They know it’s a long shot. But if he could somehow pick off New Hampshire, it would then put less pressure on him to win the swing states where he’s been struggling. The thing is, though, Trump just pulled out of New Hampshire. He’s given up there.
This news should be getting more attention than it’s getting. If there are two weeks left in a presidential election, you always start consolidating your resources into the states that you know are most likely to decide the election. But to give up on your main fallback state with two months to go?
Imagine if Kamala Harris were giving up on Florida this early and pulling out of the state. You’d say it was a desperation move, and you’d be right. But whereas Kamala is still very much working to put her fallback state in play, and gaining a little ground there, Trump and his campaign have already decided that they don’t have the luxury of pursuing fallback states.
Based on what’s being reported, it appears the Trump campaign is going to shift all of its New Hampshire resources to Pennsylvania, a swing state where he’s losing but is still competitive. It’s not difficult to figure out what Trump is trying to do. If he can win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, that’s an Electoral College victory for him right there, regardless of the midwest.
Of course this is a low percentage play for Trump. His odds of winning Pennsylvania are perhaps 30%, his odds of winning Nevada are perhaps 40%, and his odds of winning North Carolina are perhaps 50%, so his odds of winning them both are perhaps 6%. This means Trump is pursuing a single pathway to victory, with no fallback, that only gives him 6% odds of winning the election.
Trump’s 6% odds of winning are still 6% too high for me. So we keep working to help boost Kamala Harris. But imagine being in the Trump campaign’s shoes. Sixty days to go and they’ve already decided that they’re so thoroughly out of viable pathways to victory, they’re putting all their resources into a pathway that gives them just a 6% chance of winning. That’s remarkable.
Meanwhile Kamala Harris now has so many pathways to victory, it takes a minute to do the math on all of them. She could even win the election without winning Pennsylvania at this point, and while we don’t to have to go that route, it’s crazy to think that such a pathway now exists for a Democratic candidate.
But even with Kamala Harris having the upper hand and Donald Trump running out of pathways, the election still pretty much looks like what we thought it was going to look like. The key swing states are still Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, with Kamala pursuing a fallback in Florida. This is the map, and we have sixty days to go. We all understand the assignment. Now let’s go win this.
