Rules of engagement
One of the oddest things about war is that it has rules. For instance, it’s understood that when a combatant approaches with a white flag they are there to parley and are not to be fired upon. Poison gasses and biological or chemical weapons are never to be used. Medical vehicles, hospitals and civilians are not to be fired upon. While I agree with these rules I still find it odd that a thing as barbaric and chaotic as war should be governed by something as enlightened and orderly as rules. But it does, and only the most unprincipled thugs refuse to follow them, or only ever use those rules to exploit them to their own advantage.
In his savage and illegal rape of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has broken every rule I have mentioned above (and a few more) with the exception of the proscription against chemical weapons use, and his well known ploy to justify their use is well underway. But there’s another, lesser known unwritten rule that Putin is breaking. It’s the rule, employed in modern warfare, that says that the high command of either side in a war potentially involving nuclear weapons must keep open a line of communication with the United States to avoid accidental escalation.
Over the past month, repeated efforts on the part of top American military leaders to open a line of communications with Moscow have been rebuffed. Moscow and the United States have maintained for some time a “deconfliction channel” that allows communication between Russia’s and America’s top military personnel, but that channel, for reasons known only to the Russians, is currently closed.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A. Milley have tried to set up phone calls with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, but the Russians “have so far declined to engage,” as Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement on Wednesday. There is no logical reason for this. A deconfliction channel would be highly advantageous to both parties. It is the behavior of an uncooperative, sulking child who’s furious because he’s not getting his way. The reason may also be as simple as, should Putin allow such a line of communication to be opened it would be a tacit admission that he is conducting an armed invasion.
“You’re talking about avoiding incidents with aircraft or at sea,” said Ben Hodges, a retired Army officer. “I’m sure they would’ve wanted to convey to Gerasimov and Shoigu that Russian pilots should not be launching missiles too close to the Polish border, but they would also want to talk about other places, not just Ukraine, where you have Russian aircraft.” Hodges added that, “I would also imagine they would want to convey — here’s what we’re doing, don’t interpret what we’re doing as a provocative act.”
The reason why this channel is needed in real time is because young people are operating highly sophisticated weapons of modern warfare. They are not diplomats. They are full of the impulsiveness of youth. In such hands it would be easy for a limited conflict to get out of hand, where intentions could be easily misunderstood and escalation automatically resorted to absent real-time information and the considered contemplation of older and cooler heads.
However much Putin rattles his nuclear sabres, nukes exist to help him get what he wants. For example, he doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO. He’s got it. He doesn’t want the institution of a no-fly zone. He’s got it. In the final analysis, Putin doesn’t want nuclear war any more than we do. But he doesn’t mind the threat of nuclear war to give him a tactical advantage. But without the use of a deconfliction channel he just might get a nuclear war anyway. His continued refusal to open a channel with Washington is, simply put, madness. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.