Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Donald Trump, and the prisoner’s dilemma

| 10:39 pm EDT May 21, 2018
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We know that Roger Stone is about to be indicted and arrested, not only because of the grand jury details that have made it clear, but because Stone himself admitted yesterday on Meet The Press that he thinks he’s going to be arrested. This sets up a fascinating scenario between Stone and Paul Manafort, who have done shady international political work together for decades, and are in prime position to flip on each other. In fact it may set things off to the races.

Manafort has thus far steadfastly refused to cut a plea deal, even after his sidekick Rick Gates flipped on him months ago. Manafort’s internal math may have changed over the weekend when his former son-in-law agreed to cut a plea deal against him. But the upcoming indictment of Roger Stone may change that math even more. Stone has managed to stay out of prison throughout a lifetime of underhanded political scams (he was working for Nixon at the time of Watergate), and the way you survive that long is by knowing who to throw under the bus and when.

Paul Manafort has to figure there’s a decent chance that Roger Stone quickly cuts a plea deal. Such a deal would require Stone to testify against everyone involved, most importantly against Donald Trump, but also against people like Manafort. This increases the odds that Manafort might decide to try to cut a deal before Stone can cut a deal against him. In turn, Stone knows that his arrest will increase the odds of Manafort flipping on him, which increases the odds of Stone flipping.

This does not guarantee that one of these guys will flip on the other, but logically speaking, it does significantly increase the odds. Sure, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort can try to coordinate their gameplan – but can these two dirty tricksters trust each other? Surely they know each other better than that.