Joe Biden vs Bernie Sanders: Democratic primary predictions for Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and more
Today is not Super Tuesday. But it could end up being another “super” Tuesday for Joe Biden, if today goes as well as his recent surge has suggested he will. Bernie Sanders is trying to make sure today is “Comeback Tuesday” for him, as he’s lost his brief lead and all of the momentum. So what’s about to happen today? Here are our predictions:
Mississippi: The only recent poll in this state has Joe Biden winning by an astounding fifty-five points. We’re not sure if a win that large is even possible between two candidates this prominent. But based on demographics, and the fact that Sanders has already given up and canceled campaign events in the state, we expect Mississippi will end up going a lot like South Carolina. Prediction: Biden by 25 to 40 points.
Missouri: The two most recent polls in this state have Biden up by twenty-two and thirty points. When multiple polls are in the same range, it’s usually a sign of accuracy. Prediction: Biden by 20-25 points.
Washington: The two most recent polls in this state have Biden up by one point and six points. This would be a surprise, as we had been expecting Sanders to win this state until Biden’s surge became overwhelming this past week. The potential trouble for Biden here is that Washington State allows mail-in votes up to eighteen days in advance – which was when there were several additional candidates in the race, and before he started surging. Prediction: toss up.
Michigan: Six new polls have Joe Biden up by an average of twenty-two points in the state. But Bernie Sanders was behind in the polls by roughly this many points in 2016, and still pulled off a narrow win. We’re presuming the pollsters have adjusted their models to account for what went wrong last time, but we won’t know until tomorrow if their adjustments have worked. This is an open primary, where some pro-Trump Republicans can and will vote for Sanders as as spoiler, but that hasn’t helped Sanders in other open primaries. We’re not even going to guess what the results in this state will be, but we will make this prediction: if Biden wins Michigan by any size margin, the primary race will essentially be over.
