Power rankings: 2020 Democratic presidential primary race

It’s still early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary race. Very early. But with so many notable candidates having entered the race, and so much maneuvering and opinion-forming already underway, we’ve reached a point where it’s time to begin handicapping the field. These rankings are based on the full spectrum of available evidence, including performance vs expectations, momentum, and other factors. We’ll update our rankings on a regular basis. And yes, statistically speaking, you’re going to strongly disagree with us about at least some of these rankings.

1) Kamala Harris: Her entry into the race has thus far managed to achieve the trifecta: broadly positive popular response to her candidacy, a wide embrace of her ideas and platform, and little interest in any (real or imaginary) scandals. This early on, the polls don’t tell us anything about a candidate who has never run in a national race before, and who is still building name recognition. Every other factor says that, for the moment at least, she’s the closest thing to a frontrunner that this crowded field has.

2) Joe Biden: It’s a testament to his built in broad popularity that he’s not even in the race yet, and he’s already one of the most popular and talked-about candidates. Most people out there think he already is in the race. Once he does enter the race, his decades-long track record in politics will work for and against him, and we’ll see how that balances out. But for now, unless another first-timer can establish Kamala-like momentum, we’re leaving Biden in the number two spot on this list.

3) Elizabeth Warren: The bad news for her is that she’s not getting nearly as much coverage and attention as she was getting two weeks ago. The good news for her is that the media hype about her “heritage scandal” has dissipated, now that the media has seen it’s not as much of a ratings-friendly controversy as it had been hoping. We expect that voters are going to gradually figure out that Elizabeth Warren is a smarter, more capable, and less divisive version of Bernie Sanders, and that she’ll pick up large chunks of his 2016 base along the way. If you’ve been paying attention for the past decade, it was really her base to begin with.

4) Beto O’Rourke: His decision to wait so long to enter the race served its purpose, as the hype leading to his announcement was significant. The trouble is that by waiting, he put so much attention on his launch, it hurt him when he finally came out of the gate in a weird manner. He’s already had to apologize in the past few days for a remark about his wife, and for something disturbing he wrote when he was in high school. We thought he’d enter this list at #3 instead of #4, but as it turns out, he’s got some things to clean up. Still, if he can salvage his botched launch, he can get back his momentum.

5) Amy Klobuchar: She’s managed to get past the “angry boss” scandal and the “comb” scandal, as expected. She’s always been considered broadly likable, and most people still view her that way. The challenge now is that she may get lost in the crowd.

6) Cory Booker: We expected him to be higher on this list by now, but he hasn’t had a particularly high profile since entering the race. That said, he has built-in popularity, which could allow him to climb higher later.

7) Kirsten Gillibrand: When her name is mentioned, most people immediately bring up Al Franken. Fair or not, it’s defining her campaign for now, and she’ll have to find a way to get past that.

8) Julian Castro: We really thought he’d have more of an impact as a candidate by now. He was the first on this list to enter the race, and we’re almost left wondering if he missed an opportunity for a higher-attention rollout by jumping in too early.

9) Pete Buttigieg: He’s the mayor of a small city, and he had zero national name recognition when he entered the race. We liked him, but we didn’t think he had a chance. Yet each time the media gives him a narrow opportunity for exposure, he’s come off very well – and he’s emerging as a potential dark horse.

10) Bernie Sanders: Many of you are spitting mad that we’ve placed him this low on the list, while many of you are celebrating. That’s his problem, of course. His support base is fierce but narrow, and most liberals and Democrats outside of his base don’t like him at all. Bernie and Biden are the only two candidates in the race with a full dose of preexisting national name recognition, and the polls say Bernie is losing pretty badly to Biden. If anything, Bernie’s numbers will drop as the first-time candidates gain more traction. We know this placement is controversial, but this is about odds of winning, not whose fans love him the most.

11) Jay Inslee: He says he’s running as a single-issue candidate so he can solely focus on climate change. That’s laudable, as he’ll force other candidates to place more focus on the issue. But it means he’s not even trying to win, and it means he won’t come close to winning.

12) Andrew Yang: The attention he’s getting so far is almost entirely positive. The trouble is that he’s getting almost no attention. Pete Buttigieg has ended up with the dark horse spotlight that we thought Yang might get. Yang’s challenge will be to climb just high enough to make it onto the main debate stage, so the average voter watching at home can find out he exists.

13) John Hickenlooper: He’s running to see if Democrats have an appetite for a straight up moderate candidate. They don’t. We don’t know why he’s running, and we don’t think he does either.

14) Tulsi Gabbard: Even if you forgive her for her past anti-gay stances, she has no answers for her recent pro-Assad, pro-Putin, anti-Obama stances. Kremlin-controlled publication Russia Today loves her. Trump flunky Matt Gaetz has voiced strong support for her. Gabbard’s campaign has gotten almost no traction, so now she’s attacking the media, Trump-style. Something doesn’t add up here.