Paul Manafort trial – so it is a plea deal or is it the immunity deals?

| 9:10 am EDT July 18, 2018
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Storylines are now emerging so quickly in the Trump-Russia scandal, it can be tricky to figure out how they fit together. It’s even trickier when two developments emerge on top of each other that appear to contradict each other. On Monday we saw evidence that Paul Manafort may be negotiating a plea deal. Then on Tuesday we saw evidence that Robert Mueller is giving immunity to certain witnesses against Manafort. So which one is it? There may be a good explanation for this seeming discrepancy.

When the judge brought the pre-trial proceedings to a halt for a week without explanation, there were a number of plausible reasons for it – but the most logical would be that Robert Mueller and Paul Manafort wanted to take a week to try to hammer out a plea deal instead of going to trial. Now suddenly Mueller is asking the judge to grant immunity to five unnamed witnesses, a sign that he’s willing to pull out all the stops to nail Manafort if it does go to trial. That’s how these two developments may fit together.

If plea deal negotiations are underway, both sides are trying to come out of it with a deal that favors their side. Such negotiations generally center around each side trying to demonstrate to the other that they’re holding the real leverage. By threatening to give get out of jail free cards to people who are willing to help take Manafort down, Mueller may be trying to make clear to Manafort that the prosecution has all the leverage.

We’ll have our answers within a week, maybe less, what’s really going on here. In the mean time it’s worth keeping in mind that the plea deal storyline and the immunity storyline don’t necessarily contradict each other. In fact, as Robert Mueller ramps up the aggression, and more Trump-Russia players have their futures at stake, we may see more head fakes than ever.