Donald Trump only has one bargaining chip left
Whenever I write about what’ll happen to Donald Trump after the midterms, I point out that while conviction and removal via impeachment requires sixty-seven Senate votes, it’s not relevant; it’s the impeachment process itself that’ll destroy Trump and force him out of office. This always leads to suggestions that Trump will never resign, and questions about what happens if he simply hides under his desk as it all plays out.
That’s an understandable question, but I don’t agree with its premise. Donald Trump has strategically filed for bankruptcy six times over the years. Whenever he’s in a situation where he’s concluded that he’s definitely going to lose, he generally looks to use whatever little leverage he has left in order to negotiate the best (or the least bad) deal he can, before walking away.
So let’s say that the Democrats take the House in the midterms and begin impeachment hearings, along with committee investigations into every one of his scandals. Keep in mind that for the past year-plus, the GOP Congress has been trying to protect Trump from his scandals and bury them at every turn. Once the Democrats start truly exposing Trump’s crimes, he’ll lose what he has left of support from the American middle. Even if he keeps his entire base, his approval rating will be in the twenties at best. He’ll be completely crippled as president, but yeah, he could choose to simply ride it out until the end of his term – if not for one thing.
The state of New York has a criminal investigation into the Trump Organization which will probably lead to consequences such as Donald Trump’s kids being indicted and put on trial for financial malfeasance. Even if Trump doesn’t care about his kids, New York can (and will) begin seizing his properties because they were illegally funded. At some point Trump will see that everything he has is rapidly being turned to mulch. At that point he’ll only have one bargaining chip left – his resignation. What will he be able to trade it for at that point? That’s too complicated to predict. But it’ll be all that he has left. He’ll declare bankruptcy on his presidency, just like he’s always declared bankruptcy whenever he’s lost.
