UPDATE: Tomorrow’s Ohio primary is happening after all
Update, 9:30pm: the courts have ruled that the Ohio primary will take place tomorrow after all. Go vote tomorrow if you safely can, and spread the word. The Governor of Ohio just announced that he’s making moves to shut down and postpone tomorrow’s Democratic primary election in the state, out of fear that voters congregating could spread the coronavirus. Health and safety are the first priority, of course. But this raises questions about how it’ll impact the primary race.
As of this moment, tomorrow’s primary races in Florida, Arizona, and Illinois are still set to take place. The latest polling averages have Joe Biden ahead in those states by blowout margins. Voter turnout could be suppressed tomorrow by coronavirus fears. But because Biden is so far ahead, it’s difficult to imagine that he won’t still win these states easily. Some have pointed out that elderly voters may be less likely to show up tomorrow due to virus fears, but that could be canceled out by the tendency for elderly people to vote early or by mail.
If Biden still wins these three states by large margins tomorrow, then it won’t matter that Ohio got postponed. The primary race will still effectively be over. Bernie Sanders can drop out or not, but either way, the race will move on without him. After tomorrow, Joe Biden will be seen as the Democratic nominee, and the media and the public will treat him that way.
That said, if Florida, Arizona, and Illinois also end up deciding tonight to postpone their primaries, or if the low turnout results in Sanders somehow pulling off a shocking upset in one of the states, we’ll have to reevaluate where things are. But as of now, it doesn’t appear this will have much of an impact on how the Democratic primary race moves forward.
