October Surprise!

| 9:09 am EDT October 1, 2020
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The “October Surprise” rarely happens in politics, yet it always ends up dominating any given election cycle, on the off chance it might happen. It’s also something of a myth that either side can manufacture an October Surprise, when in reality it tends to be something caused by outside forces that isn’t specifically aimed at helping either candidate, or something that just plain happens.

What’s notable about this election cycle is that we’ve just had a few “October Surprises” in a row at the end of September: Donald Trump’s scandalous tax returns, Brad Parscale’s bizarre downfall, and Trump’s self immolating debate catastrophe. Now that it’s actually October, we can probably expect more such instances, given the way things are going. The question is what impact these ongoing “surprises” are having.

Joe Biden has held a steady eight point lead over Trump in the polling averages for as long as Biden-Trump polling has been conducted. Trump bottomed out at about 40% a long time ago, and has seemed incapable of going lower – which is jarring but not surprising given the modern history of both presidential candidates getting at least 40% even in a blowout.

The question is whether there’s a breaking point. If the October Surprises keep going against Donald Trump like this, will a few of his least enthusiastic supporters finally turn against him? Perhaps, perhaps not. We’ll have to watch the polling averages over the next week to see if the debate has finally moved the needle.

But the thing to keep in mind is that it’s Trump, and not Biden, who has to move the needle. Biden is winning, and Trump is losing. The onus is on Trump to do something about it, and he’s lost in the weeds. Still, it’s possible that an October Surprise could end up going the other way, which is why we need to keep working on things like voter registration and campaign volunteering to make sure Biden wins by a sizable margin no matter what surprises might be in store.