Numbers look good for Kamala Harris so far, as unhinged Donald Trump falsely declares “Law Enforcement coming!!!”

| 6:07 pm EST November 5, 2024
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It’s tricky to parse early voting data and match it up to election day turnout, and it’s easy to get such calculations very wrong. But the two people I trust to parse this kind of data meaningfully based on their track records, Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier, say that things look good for the Democrats so far today. Of course we all have to take that with a grain of salt, because this is a unique election. That said, I suspect we’re going to like what we see tonight.

Keep in mind that exit polls are always somewhat wrong and often very wrong, and are best ignored. Exit polls are really just filler for the media to kick around while waiting for actual results to come in.

Also keep in mind that based on the various ways in which they count the votes, some states will have major red mirages tonight, and other states will have major blue mirages. Bottom line: don’t take partial vote totals seriously, at all, until someone like Steve Kornacki has run them through a filter of where those votes have come from and which way those precincts lean.

Meanwhile Donald Trump is showing his hand by posting this on social media: “A lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law Enforcement coming!!!” The City Commissioner of Philadelphia, a Republican, tweeted that Trump’s claim is false. Others have confirmed that there is no law enforcement situation. Trump is obviously just trying to scare people out of voting (which never works), and he’s also revealing just how panicked he is.

So let’s get some popcorn, settle in for the evening, and remember that most of the stray details you’re going to hear are extraneous, misleading, out of context, or nonsense. As always, I’ll post articles with new information as soon as I have them, so keep hitting up the front page of palmerreport.com for updates, and be sure to sign up for the Palmer Report mailing list. Now let’s go win this!