Democratic 2020 debate, night two: preview, predictions, and the likely winners and losers
Due to the semi-random manner in which the 2020 Democratic candidates were divided across the two nights, four of the five highest-polling candidates are all appearing on the stage together tonight. That sets up an interesting dynamic for viewers, and a tricky dynamic for some of the candidates. Here’s what to look for.
Tonight’s debate is being framed as a showdown between clear frontrunner Joe Biden and distant second-place candidate Bernie Sanders, and to some extent that’s accurate. But there’s far more going on here. Biden’s fate tonight will largely be decided by whether the moderators feed him substantive questions, thus allowing him to escape unscathed, or whether they feed Biden gotcha questions aimed at roughing him up. In other words, do MSNBC and NBC News treat Biden fairly because they want him to remain the frontrunner for awhile longer, or do they think they can get better ratings by kicking dirt on him and ending up with some new frontrunner?
Bernie Sanders is also facing a somewhat similar fate. He entered the race with far more national name recognition than anyone but Biden, yet Bernie’s 2020 poll numbers weren’t that strong from the outset, and they’ve since dropped to the point that he’s fallen to third place in a few polls behind Elizabeth Warren. Will Bernie be given a chance to get back in the game tonight, or will the media try to scandalize him for the sake of ratings?
Yes, this has a lot to do with the media, the moderators, and the TV news networks involved – but it always does. Warren’s poll numbers started rising after the media finally stopping playing up her nonsensical heritage scandal. Beto O’Rourke has done poorly in this race because the media is no longer propping him up in same way that it did during his 2018 Senate run. The media plays a huge role in all of this.
That brings us to the curious case of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. She seemed to be the candidate with legitimate underdog momentum coming into this race. Instead, the media began playing him up as the charmed underdog, because of his inspiring backstory. But in recent weeks the media has backed off its praise for Buttigieg. That means the media will have to choose someone else as its charmed candidate going forward. Will it finally be Harris? Or will it be one of the also-rans in tonight’s debate who gets off a good one-liner?
Our guess is that Joe Biden will have ten good moments and one bad one. Bernie Sanders will have a couple moments of huge applause and a couple moments where he’s completely flustered. Kamala Harris will impress people with her calm confidence. Pete Buttigieg’s fate will be decided by whether the media asks him about his overall strengths, or his recent controversies back in South Bend. Eric Swalwell will impress people, if only because almost no one outside the MSNBC circuit is familiar with him. Michael Bennet will have a heartfelt moment. Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang will be confused for audience members.
The bottom line is that most Americans don’t actually watch the debates – especially this early in the race. Most Americans will end up forming their views about tonight’s debate based on the handful of clips that the media chooses to keep replaying, and what they see their politically knowledgeable friends posting on social media. That means you can help shape public opinion tonight simply by watching and then talking online about the candidates and moments you think should matter.
