Here’s who will flip on Donald Trump next

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Today we saw Rick Gates take the witness stand and essentially send Paul Manafort to prison for the rest of his life, simply by speaking a few words. It’s a reminder that plea deal witnesses like Gates are going to play a crucial role in the takedown of Donald Trump. Today’s bodyblow to Manafort was also a reminder that a plea deal may be the only way for anyone caught up in this scandal to avoid rotting in prison for a decade or more – which could trigger more deals. In that light, here are the people who seem most likely to flip on Trump next:

Michael Cohen: We’ll start with the obvious one. He’s already leaked incriminating evidence against himself just to spite Donald Trump, meaning he no longer has any other play but to cut a deal. It’s a matter of when, not if.

Jared Kushner: There appears to be a mountain of evidence against him, ranging from his meetings with the Russians, to his “omissions” on his security clearance form, to his questionable financial history. If he thinks he can beat the rap with high priced lawyers, the Manafort trial is a strong indicator to the contrary. And if he was hoping for a pardon, Donald Trump’s treatment of Donald Trump Jr these past few days has made clear that Trump is only in it for himself. We’ll see what the events of this week do to his thinking.

Paul Manafort: He’s probably two to three weeks away from being convicted on a slew of felonies that’ll keep him behind bars for the rest of his life. His delusions about beating the rap are being shattered before his eyes.

Maria Butina: She already spilled her guts to the Senate Intel Committee months ago, so she’s clearly looking to cooperate. Now that she’s behind bars, it stands to reason that she’ll want a plea deal.

Wildcards: We all saw the Michael Flynn and Rick Gates plea deals coming, but Robert Mueller managed to keep the George Papadopoulos deal a secret for months after it was finalized. Mueller has probably cut other deals we don’t know about, and with everything now underway, don’t be shocked if he unveils one or more existing deals that he’s been holding up his sleeve.