New reports of a Russian FSB related scheme to overthrow Putin from within
Major news outlets keep reporting that Vladimir Putin has fired and/or detained some of his own top people in the Kremlin, either out of frustration at losing, or paranoia about a potential coup. This kind of behavior can backfire, as it may motivate Putin’s top people to take him down before he can take them down. Now there are reports of a Russian FSB scheme to overthrow Putin.
Leading Ukrainian publication The Kyiv Independent now says that according to the Ukrainian government’s military intelligence, there is a scheme among Russian leaders to oust Putin and replace him with FSB head Aleksandr Bortnikov. If you’re wondering why Ukraine would give Putin a heads up about an upcoming secret coup attempt, consider the possible strategy at play here.
The Kyiv Independent is trustworthy, as is the government of Ukraine. But claims like this still must be taken with a grain of salt. In wartime, governments often strategically release false claims about what’s going on internally with the enemy, in order to cause trouble for the enemy.
For instance, the government of Ukraine could be leaking this story specifically to try to take advantage of Putin’s growing paranoia. If Putin can be convinced that the head of his own FSB is part of an impending coup, Putin could be goaded into taking out the head of the FSB – which would only serve to weaken him, and motivate the FSB to try to overthrow him.
In other words, the government of Ukraine could be baiting Putin into taking the kind of paranoid action that could get himself ousted. In such case this would be a brilliant move. And if this is real intel, the government of Ukraine must have good reason for giving it to the media. In any case, Putin is now in the situation of not knowing whether there’s an FSB scheme to overthrow him, which means he has to worry about whether to trust the FSB. The more Putin is forced to question himself, the more likely he’ll end up falling.
