New numbers say Donald Trump’s criminal troubles have made him completely non-viable for 2024
For awhile now I’ve said that Donald Trump’s worsening legal problems would serve to gradually eliminate his political viability, even before a prison cell door can get slammed in his face. Even as everyone keeps pointlessly focusing on Trump’s base, they do not decide elections and never have. All you have to do is look at the fact that half of Republican 2024 primary voters already say they want someone other than Trump to be the nominee, and you realize that this guy is about as vulnerable as can be. But now new numbers reveal that he’s completely non-viable for 2024.
New polling from Reuters says that about half of Republican general election voters will refuse to vote for Trump if he’s convicted of a felony by then. Given that Trump will have numerous criminal trials before the election and will face dozens of felony counts, it’s nearly a lock that he’ll end up being convicted on at least one of those counts in at least one of those trials before the election. And now we’ve got half of Republican general election voters saying they won’t vote for Trump under those circumstances.
Polling can vary. Numbers can change. People can change their minds. But these numbers are so devastating for Trump, they can end up being off by a little and it’ll still mean the end for him. If only half of Republican voters are willing to turn out for Trump in the 2024 general election, President Joe Biden would be looking at reelection by perhaps twenty million votes, in a historic blowout.
And this is all before Trump is convicted, and before it truly sinks in for Republican voters that Trump is going to be a convict by the time of the 2024 election. These poll numbers are likely to get even worse for Trump once he’s convicted, not better.
Even now that we know Trump would lose the 2024 general election in a forfeit-level blowout, we’ll still be told that “Trump’s base will nominate him no matter what.” But this brings us back to the basic fact that I’ve been harping on for the past two years: Trump’s base and the Republican primary voting base are not the same thing. Not at all. Again, this is made clear by longstanding polling showing that half of Republican 2024 primary voters already want someone other than Trump as the nominee.
This means that Trump’s base makes up far less than half of the Republican primary voting base. That in turn underscores just how easy it would be for an outside candidate to step in, consolidate the support of the Republican primary voters who already want someone other than Trump, and win the nomination. That’ll become a lot easier if Trump’s January 6th trial takes place before Republican primary voting begins next spring, and primary voters have to start thinking twice about nominating a guy who’s going to prison.
But whether or not Republican primary voters want to nominate Trump is up to them. If they do, they’ll be forfeiting the 2024 election in a massive blowout, out of pure stubbornly stupid spite. And we also have the clearest evidence yet that Trump has absolutely no political viability whatsoever. When half of your own party’s voters say that your upcoming criminal convictions mean they won’t vote for you in the general election even if you’re the nominee, it’s already over for you. Your political life is over. There’s no “but what about” here. There’s no “but Trump’s base” here. He’s simply finished. He’s been finished all along. But it’s now becoming painfully clear how far removed from 2024 viability Trump is.
