Joe Biden wins Nebraska-02, significantly broadening his path to victory
CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News have all now called Nebraska’s second congressional district for Joe Biden, meaning Biden will pick up a single electoral vote in the state. Believe it or not, this is a big deal, because it changes the electoral math entirely.
Fox News is the only outlet thus far to call Arizona for Joe Biden. But if that holds up, and if Biden wins all the blue states from 2016, then Wisconsin and Michigan will get him to 269 electoral votes. The one vote from Nebraska will then get him to 270, even without or Pennsylvania or Georgia.
The current “red mirage” numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are artificially skewed toward same-day voting, and therefore artificially inflated for Trump. We expect Biden to win all three states – but Biden is likely to win Wisconsin and Michigan more quickly and by a larger margin.
For this path to victory to hold up for Joe Biden, he still needs a few things to happen. He needs to win Minnesota, which CNN and MSNBC have called for him. He needs to win Nevada, which expects expect he will. But Biden now has a path to 270 electoral votes even before Pennsylvania is finished counting.
