Beware of the Michigan primary on Tuesday
The year was 2016. Hillary Clinton had just blown out Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday, and it was clear to everyone paying proper attention that she was going to be the nominee. But then a week later Sanders pulled off a narrow victory in Michigan – and it screwed up the entire race for everyone involved.
On the same day Sanders won Michigan by two points, Hillary Clinton won Mississippi in a massive blowout. Clinton picked up far more delegates than Sanders that day. But as with so many other things in the 2016 race, the facts didn’t matter that day. The media uniformly reported that Michigan meant Sanders had momentum and was making a comeback, even though he had fallen further behind that day. That false narrative prompted Sanders to stay in the race for another several months, fighting for a lost cause, even as his fans began to cling to him even more tightly.
This set up the general election for doom. Hillary Clinton lost the general election for a number of illegitimate reasons (Trump cheated with Russia, Comey’s last minute letter, etc). But one key factor was that Bernie Sanders fans never did properly transition to supporting her. If he’d lost Michigan, or if the media had simply been willing to accurately report that his Mississippi loss meant he fell even further behind in the race that day, none of the past four years might have even happened.
I only bring this up because we’re now looking at a hauntingly similar situation this upcoming Tuesday. Joe Biden is going to win Mississippi in a major blowout. Biden is now expected to win Michigan, but thanks to the state’s open primary format, Sanders could pull off a surprise win there. And if the media botches it again, we could be looking at 2016 all over again. One key difference this time around is that several other states also vote this Tuesday, including Missouri and Washington. So at least the media will have a harder time pretending only one state is voting this time around.
