The math is now against Donald Trump surviving this
A coin flip is said to be random, because on each flip, there is an equal chance of it being heads or tails. Over a long period of time, such randomness produces 50/50 results. In the criminal investigation world, the usage of flip is never a 50/50 chance.
Recent reports are that Keith Davidson, the former lawyer for both Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, has been in touch with federal prosecutors and potentially the FBI in connection with the Michal Cohen matter. Davidson and Cohen negotiated at least those two settlements on behalf of Donald J. Trump. Davidson reportedly is cooperating with the Feds. There is nothing random about someone flipping.
In game-theory, often found in eminent domain and urban development situations, the “last holdout problem” often develops. The last holdout knows that all properties must be purchased to complete the transaction contemplated, and so the last holdout tries to gain advantage by using the leverage of refusal to extract the biggest price or concessions from the one doing the buying. In criminal investigations, the last holdout is not an effective measure for a simple reason – the prosecutors seek those lower in the criminal hierarchy to “flip” on those above them. Once the prosecutors have enough evidence against the targets or subjects of the investigation, there is a sort of last holdout diminishment – the evidence or information that holdout has is not as valuable to prosecutors.
For those invited to flip, as Michael Cohen may be now, the individual needs to assess whether others have flipped and what exposure the individual has to significant jail time if they do not use the information they have to go higher up the hierarchy. References to Sammy “The Bull” Gravano are representative of someone deciding to flip on those higher up in the foodchain by using the information to reduce his exposure. Perhaps if he had decided that omerta was the order of the day, he would not have been treated so gently despite his horrible record of murder and other crimes.
It is no wonder Donald Trump is lashing out at Maggie Haberman and “flipping” out today. As Davidson and others plea and flip, he must be nervous that Cohen will do so, and then the only person higher up in the hierarchy is the one Twitter tweaking.
Daniel is a lawyer writing and teaching about SCOTUS, and is the author of the book “The Chief Justices” about the SCOTUS as seen through the center seat.