So much for Paul Manafort’s magic pardon

| 11:45 pm EDT September 7, 2018
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Earlier today, George Papadopoulos and his legal team told a federal judge that Donald Trump was guilty of felony obstruction of justice, and then that judge handed Papadopoulos a surprisingly lenient fourteen day prison sentence. Just hours later, in what feels like it probably wasn’t a coincidence, it’s being reported that Paul Manafort is formally negotiating a plea deal. This suddenly changes things, and more than by a small measure.

We may never know for certain if Manafort was motivated by the “get out of jail nearly for free” card that had just been handed to Papadopoulos. But after previous reports that Manafort had tried to cut a plea deal during his first trial, only to give up after Robert Mueller wasn’t willing to give him sufficient leniency, something has motivated Manafort to begin negotiating again. It’s a big deal because Mueller would only give Manafort a deal at this point if he’s willing to flip on Trump. It’s also a big deal because it finally shatters the popular narrative about Manafort being magically pardoned.

Donald Trump’s entire motivation for pardoning Manafort would be to prevent him from turning over evidence and testimony that incriminates Trump. But when the news broke late last month that Manafort had been trying to cut a plea deal, Trump never did pull the trigger on a pardon. That window is now just about closed, because once Manafort does his proffer session, Mueller will already have what he needs against Trump. If Trump then tries to pardon Manafort, it’ll be too late. For that matter, for all we know, Manafort may have already done his proffer session. The point is that Trump has waited too long.

Palmer Report long ago spelled out why Donald Trump cannot pardon his way out of this. People like Paul Manafort would still face state level charges. The courts might strike down Trump’s attempt at pardoning his co-conspirators anyway. And even if Manafort were no longer facing any criminal jeopardy, he’d then be legally required to testify against Trump. There never was a magic pardon option. Even Trump seems to know it, which is why he never did try. Of course, for all we know, Trump may have tried to pardon Manafort, and then one of his aides stole it off his desk.