Trump’s impeachment trial is a lose-lose for Senate Republicans
When Trump’s Senate impeachment trial begins in two weeks, it’ll take the votes of all 50 Democratic Senators and 17 Republican Senators to convict him and bar him from ever running for office again. There’s no headcount yet as to how many Republican Senators might vote to convict.
In reality the Republicans are probably waiting to see how much uglier Trump’s insurrection scandal gets, and how much lower Trump’s approval rating falls. They’ll each end up making a decision based on whether they selfishly think their own careers are better off by convicting or not convicting. That decision will be up to them. But what happens next is out of their hands.
If Senate Republicans help convict Trump, then great, it’s a win for America. But if the Republicans decide not to convict Trump, then at least it’s a win for the Democrats. It would create a situation heading into 2022 where Trump will be even more scandalized and toxically unpopular – likely on criminal trial or in prison by then – and Republican Senators running for reelection will have to explain to voters in the middle why they falsely acquitted a guy who ended up in prison for that same crime.
We can place political pressure on Senate Republicans to convict Trump, but we can’t force them to do it. It’ll be their choice. But it’s a lose-lose for them. In fact they’ll probably be worse off by 2022 if they vote to acquit him. And when you consider Trump will surely be in prison before he can even think about running for President in 2024, acquitting him won’t really help him anyway.
