Looks like Joe Biden is about to pull off a huge victory next week
Joe Biden is coming out of Super Tuesday with huge momentum and what feels like a fairly clear path to the nomination, thanks to his big leads in a number of states that will be voting later. Bernie Sanders is coming out of Super Tuesday reeling, and his mathematical path to the nomination looks bleak. But momentum can change in an instant.
That’s why the next round of Democratic primary states is so important. Five days from now we’ll see seven states voting simultaneously. Four of them have significant delegate hauls: Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, and Washington State. Based on demographics, Biden is likely to have blowout wins in Missouri and Mississippi. As of last week, Sanders was ahead in the polls in Michigan and Washington State by single digits. This would give Biden the biggest delegate haul for the day by far. But because so much attention in politics is paid to Michigan, Sanders could have come out of next Tuesday with perceived momentum. Now the numbers are shifting.
The most recent major poll in Michigan, taken during the height of Bernie mania, had Sanders up by nine points. But now a brand new poll has Biden up by six points in the state – a fifteen point shift. Remarkably, this poll was conducted during Biden’s surge, not after. Pete, Amy, and Bloomberg were all included in this poll, and got twenty points between them. So if the majority of those votes shift to Biden, he’s now looking at a far larger lead than the six points that this poll shows.
I’ve always found that the polling averages are far more reliable than individual polls. But when you only have one new poll to work with, you have to take it as your only data point. The bottom line is that Biden appears to be surging in Michigan at a phenomenal rate. Then there’s Washington, where the most recent poll, also conducted during Bernie mania, had Sanders up by six points. You have to wonder if Biden is surging there as well. We await more polling data, but it looks like Biden could end up dominating next Tuesday as thoroughly as he did this past Tuesday.
