Looks like Andy Beshear has won in Kentucky – and it’s great news for the Democrats heading into 2024
There are a few deeply red states which sort of paradoxically have Democratic Governors. The conservative voters in the state may hate the Democratic Party on the national level for ideological (or unhinged) reasons. But when they see positive results from their own Democratic Governor, they decide they want to keep riding that candidate.
Kentucky is one of those states, with Democratic Governor Andy Beshear being fairly popular. His reelection race today is a good litmus test for what 2024 might look like. Are Republican-leaning voters so actively enraged at the Democratic Party at large, that they’re willing to go out and bounce their own Democratic Governor out of office, even though they like him? Or is right wing voters’ rage toward the Democratic Party more muted?
As it turns out, Andy Beshear has apparently won reelection. Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman says he’s “seen enough” and that Beshear is a lock to win. He always cautions that his calls aren’t official election calls for his publication, but he’s never wrong about these kinds of calls.
So if Beshear has won tonight, then it’s a big deal, and not just for the good people of Kentucky. It would mean that conservative voters are not in a mood to flood the polls and arbitrarily vote Republican. This directly translates to 2024, where popular incumbent Democratic Senators are seeking reelection in the red states of Ohio and Montana. And it also translates to President Joe Biden’s prospects in swing states.
We’ll see how the rest of the night goes. My stance going in was that if Beshear won reelection by any margin, and if the Democrats won the Virginia legislature by any margin, and if the Ohio referendums turned out correctly, then it would be a good to great sign for the Democrats on a national level in 2024.
