Lauren Boebert’s life just got a whole lot more difficult
If House Republican Lauren Boebert had simply run for reelection in her own Colorado 3rd District, she’d have been a lock to be the Republican nominee and she probably would have had a 40% chance of winning the general election. But she made the bizarre move of deciding to run in Colorado’s 4th District in 2024. Sure, the district is more conservative, but this meant she’d have to survive a difficult primary contest. Now her decision is suddenly looking a lot worse.
Boebert was one of several Republican candidates looking to replace retiring House Republican Ken Buck in Colorado’s 4th District. Buck was originally supposed to retire at the end of his term. But today he announced that he’s retiring next week. This will create a vacancy that will have to be filled via special election in a month or two. And that’s a problem for Boebert.
In a House special election, the parties each choose their nominees. If the Republican Party chooses Lauren Boebert, she’ll have to resign her current seat in the 3rd District in order to take her seat in the 4th District. This would then trigger a special election in the 3rd District, which Democratic candidate Adam Frisch could win. This could finish off the House Republican majority.
This sets up the distinct possibility that the Republican Party won’t choose Boebert as its special election nominee, for fear of losing the majority in the process. That would allow some other Republican candidate to take office now and then turn around and run as an incumbent in the November race, which would make it even harder for Boebert to win.
If that all sounds complicated, it is. But this is the mess that Lauren Boebert made for herself when she made the increasingly questionable decision to run in a different district in 2024. Did she really not foresee the possibility that with Ken Buck retiring, he might retire early? Boebert’s career might be over even more quickly than we were expecting.
