Kyrsten Sinema is officially a goner. Here’s what happens now.
Given that Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s behavior has been equal parts corrupt opportunist and aloof space cadet for the past few years, it’s never been clear what she might do with regard to 2024. She switched her party registration from Democratic to Independent awhile back. But that didn’t help her prospects, because polling says she’s unpopular with every demographic.
Two-way and three-way polling has consistently shown Sinema in a distant third place in the Senate race in Arizona in 2024, so she was never going to be in contention. The only question was whether she was going to run a losing campaign in 2024 just to try to line her pockets more on her way out the door. Now we have our answer. Sinema has announced that she’s not seeking reelection.
What’s fascinating is that this doesn’t actually change the dynamics of the race. Various polls have shown Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego with a small lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake, with or without Sinema in the mix. So we’re facing the same scenario that we nearly always face in statewide elections in Arizona: it’s going to be close, and if we put in the work necessary, we’ll be able to parlay our very narrow advantage into a win.
Kari Lake is a divisive joke of a candidate. If she does end up being the Republican nominee as expected, it will help the Democrats. Keep in mind that the head of the Arizona Republican Party recently had to resign after getting caught on tape trying to entice Lake to drop out. The Republican Party knows that its odds are worse if Lake is its candidate. But extremist Republican primary voters in Arizona are likely to nominate Lake anyway.
All that said, because this is a purple state like Arizona, where the demographics are evenly matched, it’s going to be a close race even with the Republicans having a joke of a candidate. Lake ran a joke of a campaign for Governor of Arizona in 2022 and only lost by one point.
It’s a complete waste of time to sit around lamenting about how awful it is that someone like Kari Lake can get any votes at all. It is awful, but so what? It’s reality. You can sit on the sidelines and express stunned disbelief about how close of a race it’s going to be, or you can roll up your sleeves and make sure Kari Lake loses.
Keep in mind that for the Democrats to have any chance at keeping the Senate majority in 2024, they must win this Arizona race. And this race is likely to be decided by a point or two in either direction. Which direction it goes is up to you. If you donate a few bucks to Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego, or sign up for an online volunteer shift, or just retweet Gallego whenever he posts fundraising links, you will make the difference between a close win and a close loss. Sinema is a goner and that’s great. But let’s make sure she’s replaced by someone better, not someone even worse.
