Kamala Harris takes lead across seven key swing states in new polling
We keep seeing Kamala Harris pulling ahead of Donald Trump by a few points in national polls, which is great news for her. But presidential elections aren’t decided by the national vote, they’re decided by swing states. By now many of you can recite the seven key presidential election swing states from memory: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. Whoever wins those states is going to win the 2024 election.
That’s why it’s such big news that the latest Bloomberg polling says Kamala Harris has taken a small lead over Trump across the seven key swing states. Harris is two points ahead in Arizona, tied in Georgia, eleven points ahead in Michigan, two points ahead in Nevada, two points behind in North Carolina, four points behind in Pennsylvania, and two points ahead in Wisconsin. In all it averages out to a one point lead for Harris across all seven states.
Of course individual polls always have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. For instance, even though the Bloomberg poll is favorable for Harris overall, no one really believes that Trump is four points ahead in Pennsylvania (and in fact other recent polls have Harris ahead in Pennsylvania).
But the upshot is that poll after poll keeps delivering good news for Kamala Harris. She’s only been in the race for ten days and she’s already pulled slightly ahead nationally and slightly ahead in the swing states. If her current unprecedented momentum keeps up, she could win by the kind of sizable margin that would make any Republican election antics irrelevant. So let’s try to run up the score.
