What the startling new numbers from Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke really tell us

| 7:40 pm EDT March 19, 2019
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Earlier this week, Palmer Report explained that it’s far too early to size up the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field simply by looking at any one factor. Polls are still more about leftover name recognition from past elections than about current preferences. Fundraising numbers are also only one factor. Now we’re seeing startling new numbers from Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke, each of a different kind, and it’s important to put them in context.

Two new major polls have been released this week. The new Morning Consult poll shows little to no movement for any candidate, in comparison to the last time it was conducted a week ago. But the new CNN poll tells a different story. It has Joe Biden in first place at 28% and Bernie Sanders in second place at 20%, which as we’ve explained, is mostly a function of the time they’ve spent on the national political stage prior to this race. The real story here is that Kamala Harris has spiked to third place with 12%, while Beto O’Rourke is in fourth place with 11%.

O’Rourke’s recent Texas Senate race garnered consistent nationwide coverage, so he has more built-in national name recognition than Harris does. So the fact that she’s climbed ahead of him in the CNN poll is a big deal. In fact, when you consider that Biden and Bernie both have fairly low polling numbers for already being such household names, Kamala’s numbers make a strong argument that she’s the de facto frontrunner. That said, because Beto just now entered the race, we’ll want to see if he gets a bump in the polls next week from his launch.

The other startling news is that Beto O’Rourke managed to raise slightly more money in the first 24 hours of his campaign than Bernie Sanders raised in his first 24 hours. Again, Bernie is the more established name, so it’s a really big deal that Beto managed to out-fundraise him.

The poll numbers are telling us that Kamala Harris has the momentum, while the fundraising numbers tell us that Beto O’Rourke has the momentum. This early in the race, particularly in a field this large, positive news about a candidate tends to snowball in terms of positive coverage and attention. So we consider momentum to be the biggest overall factor in ranking the field. Kamala and Beto had a good week. We’ll see what happens next week in this crowded race.