Judge Merchan’s jury instructions probably just sealed the deal for Donald Trump’s conviction

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When the prosecution has a strong case and the defendant is obviously guilty but the verdict goes haywire, it’s usually a result of a bad judge. When a judge is incompetent or biased, he or she can make the wrong decisions about which witnesses and evidence to let in, and – crucially – give the jury unreasonable instructions.

Of course in Donald Trump’s New York criminal trial, Judge Juan Merchan has consistently shown himself to be competent and fair, so this hasn’t been a concern. Sure enough, Merchan announced his limiting instructions for the jury today, and they were exactly what you’d have hoped for (unless you’re Trump).

Merchan is instructing the jury that in order to convict Trump for falsifying business records, they only have to conclude that Trump falsified them or caused them to be falsified. Perhaps more importantly, Merchan is instructing jurors that in order to convict Trump on felony counts, they each only have to conclude that Trump was committing some other crime by falsifying his business records. If Juror 1 thinks it was election fraud, and Juror 2 thinks it was campaign finance fraud or whatever the case may be, that’s fine – as long as they all agree that there was some crime involved to make the falsified business records a felony instead of a misdemeanor.

With the overwhelming case that the prosecution put on, and the near total lack of a case that the defense put on, these jury instructions should probably seal the deal for a guilty verdict on thirty-four felony counts. We’ll find out soon enough, as we should have a verdict next week.

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