Donald Trump Jr subpoena sets up explosive contempt of Congress showdown

| 8:40 pm EDT May 8, 2019
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Senator Richard Burr, the Republican Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has subpoenaed Donald Trump Jr to testify about the Trump-Russia scandal. Junior says he’ll refuse to show up. Burr issued the subpoena with the knowledge that Junior would likely defy it, so Burr is surely prepared to try to hold him in contempt of Congress for it. That sets up an explosive contempt hearing whose impact could quickly go far and wide.

The Republicans have just a one-seat majority on the Senate Intel Committee. So if Richard Burr holds a contempt hearing against Donald Trump Jr, and all the Democrats on the committee join him in voting to hold Junior in contempt, there will be nothing the other Republicans on the committee can do. From there it would move to a full Senate hearing and vote. The GOP holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but if Burr is voting yes, then that drops to 52-48.

This would then place the spotlight on the wobbliest handful of Republican Senators who always seem to be afraid of both sides. At that point you could expect Donald Trump to apply all the pressure he can on these swing votes, in the name of protecting his son. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just got done loudly insisting that the Trump-Russia probe is done, so we can presume he would also try to pressure the swing votes into protecting Junior.

Even if such maneuvering were to work, it would still result in a nationally televised hearing in which the Republican Senate fully takes ownership of Donald Trump’s scandals by voting that Donald Trump’s son should be allowed to defy a subpoena that was issued by a Republican Senator. It could deliver a bodyblow to Republican Senators’ reelection chances in 2020 – so much so that the GOP could end up privately pressuring Junior to go ahead and testify, in order to avoid the contempt spectacle.

No matter how this plays out, now that the Republican Senate has subpoenaed Donald Trump Jr to testify, it clears a path for the Democratic House to subpoena him as well. If Junior isn’t willing to testify for the more pro-Trump Senate, he’ll also refuse to testify for the House. If and when that happens, the House will definitely hold him in contempt. We’ll see how things escalate from there.