Joe Manchin admits he “can’t take the fallout”

| 4:00 pm EDT May 25, 2021
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Joe Manchin confirmed today that he won’t blow up the filibuster over the 1/6 commission, saying “I can’t take the fallout.” As I wrote last night, Joe Manchin was never going blow up the filibuster over this. Democrats would rather have a 1/6 select committee anyway. He’ll let the Republicans blow up the filibuster by embarrassingly using it against a 1/6 commission. Then he’ll have cover to take next steps.

What are Manchin’s next steps? He doesn’t have to do anything for awhile, because infrastructure will pass with 50 votes, and there’s no hurry on HR1. But when it does come time for Manchin to get off his butt, he’ll point to the 1/6 commission filibuster as his excuse to move.

Most likely he’ll either support specific exemptions to the filibuster for the things the Democrats want to pass, or he’ll support changing reconciliation rules to cover things that aren’t really budgetary. But he doesn’t have the option of non-action forever, and he knows it.

If nothing else, Manchin knows he needs HR1 (or something similar) to pass sometime in 2022 because he’s a Democrat facing reelection in a red state with voter suppression. In the end, you can always trust the likes of Manchin to do what they think is best for themselves. He’s just waiting for the landscape to shift to the point where he can take his next steps without having to take the fallout.