Joe Biden’s got this

| 3:00 pm EST February 2, 2024
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The Intelligencer believes that a 5-way race will help President Biden beat Donald Trump. In a word, hogwash. So many things when it comes to politics are subjective, and polls don’t always show what’s really going on. It’s not as if any of the pollsters poll every person in the U.S. In fact, some people believe you need a landline to increase your chances of being invited to a poll. All of this is educated guessing at best. Farron Cousins explained something on one of his shows that made me think. He discussed how the media was going nuts over Trump’s two big “wins” in Iowa and New Hampshire, but everything is not as it seems. Yes, Trump won the Iowa caucus, but only 35% of eligible voters turned out. Same for New Hampshire-low voter turnout. The important thing in New Hampshire is that 60% of independents have no use for Trump and voted for Haley. It is more likely that they will go for Biden over Trump as well. If we want to look at educated guesses and gauge their accuracy, how about we look at a more positive one?

According to Newsweek, the 2024 election map currently reveals that “Joe Biden will beat Trump by an even bigger margin.” I’ll take that educated guess any day of the week. Newsweek’s story is based on a report by Moody’s Analytics. That report discusses many issues that come into play when voting, including (or especially) the economy. Newsweek claims that Moody’s “specializes in modeling political and economic events,” and though their title include “even bigger margin,” inside the article they say it will be a “thin margin.” It predicts that Biden will flip North Carolina, but he will lose Arizona, which he won in 2020. The report goes on to say that “political factors” favor Trump while the economy favors Biden. It is rather puzzling to me what those “political factors” might be that favor Trump because he has no platform.

The caveat to anything is that they are, again, merely educated guesses. In fact, Moody projected a Trump reelection in 2020, and they were obviously wrong. The biggest things to Moody’s prediction, however, are the economy and voter turnout. If the economy continues to do well, it is more likely than not that Biden will prevail. In that same vein, a new Quinnipiac University poll, which was conducted earlier this week, shows Biden with 50% and Trump with 44%, which is up from their last poll.

Regardless of what polls say, I firmly believe that Trump will not receive enough support from the general population to win head dog catcher, let alone president. So many have grown weary of his and his allies’ tactics. If they were paying attention, they would see that and change those tactics. Hopefully, they will continue to not notice. You really can’t tell anything much from a report and poll. All we can do is keep it positive and vote for Biden. He’s been a good president, and Trump cannot touch him in accomplishments.