Joe Biden is still three steps ahead of Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin is now reportedly firing Russian missiles that are landing within fifteen miles of the border of Poland. He obviously lacks the troops or equipment to even try to go to war with Poland or any other nation; he doesn’t even have sufficient forces for his war in Ukraine. But Putin is clearly trying to bait NATO into deciding to join the fray. President Joe Biden appears to wisely understand the complexities of all this.
This doesn’t necessarily mean Biden made the right call by declining to have the U.S. transport Mig jets into Ukraine. There’s not always a clear right answer in the moment, especially in war. But Putin appears to have wanted someone in NATO to fly the jets into Ukraine, which may have been the best reason not to do it.
The complexities of all this are infinitely far removed from the simplistic chants on social media such as “be more aggressive” or “grow a spine” or “DO SOMETHING.” Sadly, much of this comes from pundits who have grown quite prominent on social media with their simplistic magic wand takes on politics.
So what’s the right call? For something this tricky I’d first want to see all the most sensitive U.S. intel, talk privately with all the NATO leaders, and so on, before even thinking that I might know what the right call might be. Absent that, I won’t pretend I know by yelling out simplistic virtuous-sounding gibberish.
Don’t get me wrong; some of this is a no brainer. Cutting off Russia economically, crushing its oligarchs, and so on, are easy calls for anyone to make. Letting Eastern Europe arm Ukraine was a fairly easy call, because it was going to be widely seen as mere defensive posturing, not aggression. Sometimes the upside is just so clear, and the downside is so clearly limited.
But if Poland didn’t think it was a good idea to fly its MiGs across the border to give them to Ukraine, why would it be a good idea for the U.S. to fly Poland’s MiGs across the border into Ukraine? There’s obviously a major downside here, and Polish and U.S. leaders both see it.
Keep in mind that the U.S. intel community seems to know Putin’s every move before he makes it. By all accounts the U.S. has publicly announced much of this intel in real time (or given it directly to Ukraine), in order to take away Putin’s element of surprise and keep him flustered. But the U.S. has surely intercepted even more intel about Putin that it hasn’t made public.
When you have the right leaders in charge, sometimes you do have to give them the benefit of the doubt that if they’re making a move that doesn’t make sense to you, it may be because they’re working with more information than they can give you in that moment. Biden has been three steps ahead of Putin throughout this entire saga, which is why Putin is losing so badly. Liberal activists have a bad habit of turning viciously against their own proven leaders, and assuming the absolute worst, the minute one decision doesn’t make sense to them. Let’s not do to Biden what we’ve foolishly done to so many capable Democratic leaders in years past.
