Here’s what really happens if Jeff Sessions gets fired
Yesterday the legal watchdog group CREW uncovered the fact that Department of Justice Solicitor General Noel Francisco was long ago given an ethics waiver by Donald Trump, meaning that – in contrast to what has widely been publicly believed – Francisco is indeed in the line of succession for the Trump-Russia investigation. This has set off a new round of “If Trump fires Jeff Sessions, Trump magically wins” narratives in the mainstream media. But that’s not really how any of this works.
The premise of the narrative is that if Donald Trump fires Jeff Sessions, he’ll either appoint a new Attorney General who will take control of the Trump-Russia investigation, or he’ll also fire Rod Rosenstein, which would mean that Noel Francisco would inherit control of the investigation. This is theoretically possible, but not particularly relevant.
For one thing, despite the waiver, there is no reason to expect that Francisco would decide to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Best anyone can tell, Francisco and Rosenstein are close. For that matter, there is no reason to believe that Francisco is the kind of stupid corrupt criminal who would illegally fire Mueller; Francisco would be setting himself up for potential prison time. But even if Francisco does turn out to be someone far different than we think he is, it still might not really matter much.
By all accounts, Robert Mueller is preparing to make his big move against Donald Trump shortly after the midterms. After that, it won’t matter if Noel Francisco, or Jeff Sessions’ replacement, tries to fire Mueller. For that matter, Trump would have a particularly hard time trying to get away with having Mueller fired while Mueller is making his move against him. In any case, Mueller would simply hand things off to the House (if the Democrats win), and to the various U.S. Attorneys around the nation who have been handling some of his cases for him.
The bottom line is this: if Donald Trump had fired Jeff Sessions six months or a year ago, and had managed to put someone in charge of the Trump-Russia investigation who was suicidal enough to fire Robert Mueller, it could have been a real problem. But now? At this point? As usual, Trump has tepidly waited far too long to actually carry out his planned shenanigans.
Also, if and when Donald Trump fires Jeff Sessions, we’ll see Sessions immediately cut a cooperating plea deal with Mueller, if he hasn’t already. Trump would probably be smarter to keep Sessions on his team awhile longer. But then again, for all his villainous intentions, Trump rarely makes the smart move. If you’re the Resistance, it’s far more important to spend these next few days getting out the vote, rather than sitting home and fretting over things that will probably prove irrelevant anyway.
