Jeff Flake was always going to vote “yes” on Brett Kavanaugh – but his confirmation is still very much in doubt
Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced this morning that he’s going to vote “yes” on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, just like we always knew he would. This means that the Senate Judiciary Committee is going to vote to advance Kavanaugh to full Senate vote, just like we always knew they would. But his confirmation in a full Senate vote is still very much in doubt. If you’re looking for the facts about what happens next, here you go.
You may not hear any of this on your favorite cable news channel today, which – as usual – is looking to scare you into believing things are about to go horribly wrong at any minute, so you’ll stay glued to the television (stop letting yourself get played for the sake of TV ratings). Here are the facts. Jeff Flake is retiring from the Senate and he’s about to go to work as a Republican lobbyist for a few years, after which he has faint ambitions of running for President. To get the lobbying gig in the first place, and to have any chance in a subsequent national Republican primary race, Flake needs to stay on the good side of the billionaire conservative donors who want Kavanaugh confirmed. So of course he’s a “yes.” But this vote is not about Flake. It never was.
As Palmer Report and other honest pundits have explained from day one, this was only ever about Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. They have consistently proven that they are only interested in whatever gives them the best odds of reelection. They’ve stabbed America in the back as needed. They’ve stabbed their own Republican Party in the back as needed. They are loyal to no one and nothing, beyond their own reelection odds. We don’t know how they’ll vote on Kavanaugh, but anyone claiming to “know” how they’re going to vote is lying.
Mitch McConnell certainly doesn’t know how Collins and Murkowski will vote. He does, however, know that if he lets things drag out any longer, Kavanaugh will become even more radioactive, and the already shaky odds of Collins and Murkowski voting “yes” will drop further. So he’s forcing the full Senate vote now. He’s used this tactic against Collins and Murkowski twice before. They saved his tax scam. They killed his Obamacare repeal. McConnell has a 50% success rate with this strategy. So if you’re looking for the odds this time around, there you go.
There is one relevant tidbit here. Last night Jeff Flake, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Joe Manchin held a private meeting. Flake is the only one of the four who’s on the committee. For all we know, he was checking with them to make sure Brett Kavanaugh would be voted down in the full Senate vote, so that he could feel safe in casting his personally necessary “yes” vote in committee. Or there could be an entirely different explanation. But anyone who claims they “know” how Collins and Murkowski will vote is full of it.
