It’s trending in Joe Biden’s direction
It would have been nice if Joe Biden could have flipped a southern state early and put this election out of its misery as quickly as possible. But as the night goes on, things are continuing to trend significantly in Biden’s direction:
– Joe Biden has won Minnesota handily (CNN and MSNBC), and he appears to be on track to win Nevada. This means Trump won’t flip a single state from 2016.
– Biden has won Arizona, according to Fox News. Biden is ahead in Arizona according to CNN and MSNBC.
– Biden has also won Nebraska’s second congressional district (CNN, MSNBC, Fox News). This means that if Nevada and Arizona hold up for Biden, he can get to 270 simply by winning Wisconsin and Michigan, even without Pennsylvania and Georgia.
– The initial “red mirage” numbers out of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are likely to shift in Joe Biden’s favor once the mail-in votes start getting properly counted. That won’t happen until tomorrow. But while we expect Biden to win all three states, we expect he’ll win Wisconsin and Michigan more decisively and sooner, meaning this race could be over within another day instead of taking a week.
– If you’re worried about Wisconsin and Michigan, consider this: Biden won Minnesota by pretty much the same margin that the polls said he would. This means that while the polls continue to be wrong in places like Florida, it appears the polls are accurate in the midwest, which is a good sign for Biden in Wisconsin in Michigan.
– As a fallback, Joe Biden appears to have decent odds of winning Georgia. The New York Times currently gives Biden a 63% chance of winning Georgia, after having leaned heavily toward Trump several hours ago.
