It’s the economy, stupid, and other things
Back in 1992, Bill Clinton campaign strategist James Carville coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid.” It was used to successfully convey the notion that, yes, the environment, yes, civil rights, yes, political ideologies, but when it comes right down to the predominant reason why Americans vote, it’s the economy. Stupid.
That’s still largely true. And no, it’s not the economy that Donald Trump lies about. It’s the actual economy. No matter how often Trump says otherwise, most Americans know that inflation is coming down because they can see it in their weekly grocery bills. It has been dropping year upon year since Trump left office. They also know that the post-Covid price of gas has been steadily falling as well. These are facts and those facts aren’t only apparent in grocery and fuel bills, they can be checked and verified.
Whatever part of this economic good news is thanks to Joe Biden is not relevant. The fact remains it’s happened on Joe Biden’s watch. What’s more, no matter how much MAGA lies about it, many Republicans are aware, however dimly, that Joe Biden is a President who really gets things done. And wisely, Kamala Harris has aligned herself with that success without any broad promises to change it, only to extend it.
This is a reality that Trump and company are truly frightened about. Trump makes bald assertions that Biden (and by extension Kamala) is “destroying the country.” That works very well with his MAGA base, but they’re going to vote for Trump anyway, even if he really does shoot someone on Fifth Avenue. But it doesn’t play very well with the Republican who was going to vote for Nikki Haley. It plays hardly at all with the independent or apolitical voter. And Trump needs them to win.
Moreover, the Harris/Walz team is about unity. However irrelevant, corny or naïve that may sound to some, hatred is a campaign strategy that simply does not last. Trump has been running on hate and manufactured outrage now for nearly a decade and people are getting tired of it. Trump did many things to people’s emotions, but he never made them feel good, or proud, or united. He mainly made people angry. For the first time since Trump slithered down his golden escalator, Harris and Walz have infused a campaign with joy. And people are responding to it like someone who has eaten stale beans for the last ten years and is suddenly given chocolate ice cream.
If you want a real-time political analogy, consider Bernie Sanders. Now, I have nothing against Bernie and there is much about him that I admire. But let’s face it, he brought his sense of political outrage against the status quo with much better success in 2016 than he did in 2020. Bernie fizzled in 2020. He lost his clean, new-car smell. What was once a fresh strategy in 2016 and galvanized a huge percentage of the voters, had really become old hat by 2020. So it must go with Trump.
Then there’s the undeniable fact that Donald Trump is something today that he wasn’t in 2016 or 2020. He is a convicted felon. Many Republicans said they wouldn’t vote for him if he was convicted. He was convicted. Not by Joe Biden or the DOJ but by a jury of his peers. Men and women who heard Trump’s lies and excuses presented by his attorney and saw right through them. No less than 34 times.
Trump is also credibly charged with other serious crimes, and he is awaiting trial for those crimes. What’s more, the evidence against him is so powerful that a conviction for each crime is inevitable. Trump can no longer enjoy the advantage of being a first time offender at any future sentencing. With each succeeding sentence he will have a longer and longer criminal record.
Finally, there’s the incontestable fact that 51% of the voting public share something in common. They’re women. And Trump’s record with women is appalling. He is credibly accused of rape, sexual assault and inappropriate sexual behaviour by 26 women — that we know about. He is an obvious misogynist. He has cheated on every one of his wives multiple times. And his record on a woman’s right to choose is worst of all. If it weren’t for Trump, Roe v Wade would still be the law of the land. And the overwhelming vote in ultra-conservative evangelical Kansas against a state amendment to permanently abolish abortion surprised everyone and proved conclusively how unpopular the abolition of Roe is.
The forces arrayed against Trump are considerable. To me his chances look much worse than they did in 2020. Of course we all must vote. We all must never for an instant let our guard down. We must continue to fight as if we are in a desperate and close struggle. But I think the news is good, and the outcome will be glorious.
I’m aware (and am constantly reminded) that the election is really down to a handful of states. To which I say, So what? True, we are not talking about millions of votes, we are talking about hundreds of thousands, or even tens of thousands. But those populations are subject to the same forces as the rest of the country, and as I have already written, those forces look very bad for Trump.
Kamala Harris has the joy, the economy, the record, the qualifications and, above all, the momentum. And I believe in a little over three weeks she is going to ride that momentum right into the White House. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.