Is Florida in play for Kamala Harris? No, but…
With Kamala Harris’ momentum continuing to grow, I keep getting asked if Florida is now in play as a swing state. The answer isn’t strictly a yes or a no. It’s a “no, but…” and the “but” is very important.
I believe Harris would need to get ahead by 7-10 points in the national polling averages for a state like Florida to come into play. As of now her best polls have her 6 points ahead of Trump, and the polling averages have her 2-3 points ahead of Trump. So no, as of today, Florida is not in play. When I’m asked the question, I say “No, but ask me again in three weeks.” That’s because we don’t know what the national landscape will look like in three weeks. Is Kamala reaching the top of her momentum and growth, or is this just the beginning? We don’t know yet.
If you live in Florida (or a similarly positioned state like Texas), I would advise not waiting to find out. Hit the pavement now in your state. Volunteer. Knock on doors. Phone bank. Help with voter registration drives. Give your state a fighting chance. Even if it turns out Florida and Texas don’t come into contention in 2024, you’ll still be spending 2024 laying the groundwork for Kamala to win your state in 2028.
If you don’t live in Florida or Texas, your focus should continue to be 100% on the states that are already in play: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Those are the states where we know the results will be close, and those are the states where we know the 2024 election will be won or lost.
