Everything you need to know about today’s Democratic 2020 Iowa caucus

This week someone will win the 2020 Iowa caucus. Next week someone will win the 2020 New Hampshire primary. I’m not making any predictions, because the few recent polls conducted in these two states have sharply conflicted with each other – a sign that anyone who’s close to the top of the polls could win. But whoever wins Iowa and New Hampshire, I’m here to tell you that it’ll have no impact on who ends up being the Democratic nominee. How dare I say something so sacrilegious, at a time when the media is insisting Iowa and New Hampshire mean everything? Well, I’ve got forty years of history on my side. Take a look at these results:

2016: Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to Donald Trump.

2016: Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton.

2012: Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney.

2008: Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama.

2008: Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to John McCain.

2000: John McCain won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush.

1996: Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Republican nomination to Bob Dole.

1992: Tom Harkin won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Democratic nomination to Bill Clinton.

1988: Dick Gephardt won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Democratic nomination to Michael Dukakis.

1988: Bob Dole won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to George H.W. Bush.

1984: Gary Hart won the New Hampshire primary, but lost the Democratic nomination to Walter Mondale.

1980: George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucus, but lost the Republican nomination to Ronald Reagan.

With the singular exception of 2004, it’s been more than forty years since the Democratic and Republican nominees both won Iowa and New Hampshire. The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary have an important role to play, in terms of forcing candidates to come face to face with voters and prove their authenticity. But history shows that Iowa and New Hampshire tell us very little about who’s going to win the nomination for either party. The demographics of these two states don’t line up enough with the nation at large for their results to provide any useful information about who’s likely to win in the more diverse states that come afterward.