I’m still ridin’ with Biden
I have never been a fan of political prognosticators. Just as there inevitably are Lottery winners, there is a prognosticator who always gets it right. In a nation of 330 million people, you’re going to find someone who has predicted the outcome of presidential elections accurately for the last forty years. It’s a statistical inevitability.
That said, I must confess I am impressed with both Allan Lichtman’s record and his methodology. Lichtman is a professor of history at American University and he has successfully predicted the outcomes of the last ten presidential elections. He does so based, not on throwing darts at a board, but a series of 13 measurable metrics that actually make logical sense. Those advantageous metrics include incumbency and long and short term economic stability, both of which Biden enjoys.
Above all, Lichtman says that debates are NOT predictive of presidential success. “Hillary Clinton won all three debates,” Lichtman said, “— still lost. John Kerry won all the debates — still lost. Barack Obama got trounced 72 to 28 percent in the [post debate] poll — worse than Biden — and went on to win.”
Lichtman has identified 13 keys to a successful presidential run. Those include incumbency and the long term and short term economy. None of them includes debate successes. Biden checks those boxes and no other Democratic candidate can. Lichtman concludes that not only will the Democrats win with Biden, we will lose with anyone else!
Personally I am sick and tired of all this talk about how Biden is mentally failing. I’m no doctor and neither are they. I think he’s fine. Whatever is clear, it’s clear to me that he’s the ONLY candidate that we can win with, and this continuous self-immolation of Democrats everywhere is eroding our chances daily. We don’t need confidence or reassurance that Biden is mentally up to the job. He’s got plenty of advisors around him. This is about the survival of American democracy and our species.
Okay, so the political pundits and talking heads have made their point. They think Biden should quit and we should commit political suicide by running with someone else. I’m with Lichtman, I think that would be a disaster. Not only must we continue ridin’ with Biden, we have no choice. Anyone BUT Biden means four more years of Trump, and that means the end of America and quite possibly the end of the world. So the talking heads need to stop taking, and the political naysayers and so-called “experts” need — if you’ll pardon my language — to shut the fuck up. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.