If Donald Trump wants to do this the hard way

| 4:30 pm EST November 25, 2020
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I expect Donald Trump to leave peacefully, for two reasons. First, he’s been behaving in tepid, indecisive, and defeated fashion for the past three weeks. He isn’t coming off as someone who wants to make a last stand.

The second reason may end up being even more determinative. Trump knows that leaving the White House peacefully is his best bet at convincing the eventual trial judge to give him bail or house arrest, as opposed to jail, while awaiting trial.

Trump already appears to be thinking in terms of house arrest. Think about why he “moved” to Mar-a-Lago a year ago and established it as his primary residence, and why he’s suddenly renovating Mar-a-Lago now. He’ll likely be at the mercy of a New York State trial judge first, and depending on which specific judge he draws, he may have one heck of time convincing that judge to let him do his house arrest in Florida. So he’ll need to behave between now and then, and he knows that.

But if Donald Trump insists on getting dragged out of the White House, I will gladly get my popcorn ready. Not only would it be cathartic, it would also all but guarantee that Trump is incarcerated while awaiting trial, meaning he’d likely never have another day in his life outside of a cell.