I like our chances
More people would be reading this article right now if I’d given it a scary headline about how we could be just forty-eight hours from total doom. But I’ve never been interested in trying to scare people into paying attention to my political analysis, and I’m not going to start now. I don’t believe in optimism, but I do believe in evidence.
When you look at the numbers and the circumstances, there is far, far, far greater reason to expect Joe Biden to win than there was to expect Hillary Clinton to win. The two elections just look so different; the main difference being that Donald Trump keeps trying the same tricks as last time, yet this time he isn’t getting much mileage out of any of them. Hunter Biden’s emails? Crazed rallies? Lock somebody up? This is all so 2016. The clear majority of the country is over it.
Heading into Election Day in 2016, Clinton had a three and a half point lead in the national polling averages; she ended up winning by two points (and therefore lost the Electoral College). Heading into Election Day in 2020, Biden has an eight to ten point lead in the national polling averages, depending on how you do the math; if the polls are off in 2020 by the same amount they were off in 2016, Biden will win an Electoral College landslide.
And while I believe the Supreme Court wouldn’t hesitate to hand Donald Trump a victory if the deciding swing state came down to a few hundred votes like in 2000, there is nothing to suggest that this election is going to be close. If Biden wins decisively, Trump may put up a fight – but Democrats have lawyers too, and Biden will be named the winner.
So yeah, we should all be concerned that there’s a remote chance our country could come to an end in forty-eight hours. I’m not going to sugar coat how ugly it would be if Trump did win. But the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor. I like our chances. And if you’re worried about the remote chance that everything might be about to go to hell, then spend these final two days making sure your friends, family, and associates turn out and vote. We’ve spent four years working to take Trump down. Now let’s finish the job.
