I don’t believe this one

| 12:01 pm EDT September 25, 2024
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Let’s talk about polls. There’s a new NBC poll out, and it shows Kamala Harris up and WAY over Donald Trump nationally by five points. I repeat: There’s a new poll out from NBC, and it shows Kamala Harris up and WAY over Donald Trump by five points.

I write this twice because I hope vehemently, that perhaps some TV reporter will actually report on this. See, all the media is doing is wildly hyping the NY Times/Sienna poll which chows Trump ahead. A few words about that poll. I do not believe it. I don’t care if that sounds harsh. I really don’t. Whenever polls have Harris up, , the NY Times comes out with an outlier.

I once wrote about Outlier polls, and many of you were confused about exactly what they were, so please allow me to explain. Outliers are polls that show vastly different results than all the OTHER polls that are released in that time period.

For example, say there’s a Senate race. One Senator is said to be WAY ahead. About 25 or so polls confirm this. Then, one lone poll shows the OTHER candidate up by 15. It’s LIKELY that poll is not real. Perhaps a mistake was made in the sampling size. There are tons of reasons why it might not be accurate.

Think of it too, like the ugly duckling. All these polls, swans that look the same, show the same result, dozens of en and then — one ugly poll comes out showing the exact opposite. But with outliers, they do NOT turn into swans. Usually polls like this are rarely proven to be accurate, so we say never accept the results of just ONE poll.

Someone should tell the TV news media about that. The cross tabs on the NY Times poll show an oversampling of Republicans. But that’s for another day. I will conclude with this — I cannot help but notice that the NY Times/Sienna has been coming out with polls that show a tilt toward Trump all political season. I’m not saying they’re doing it on purpose. I’m saying — trust NO one poll. Look at the aggregates from ALL the polls. And virtually ALL of them show Harris far ahead.