How long before it all falls apart for “Speaker” Mike Johnson?
House Republicans are all singing kumbaya behind their new Speaker Mike Johnson, and even gleefully yelling “shut up” at reporters who have tried to ask policy questions. Republicans are having their moment, so to speak. But how long before they fall apart again? I’d say sooner than later.
There is simply no way for any Republican Speaker to simultaneously keep the “crazy chaos” caucus happy and keep the House Republicans in toss-up districts happen for very long. Kevin McCarthy managed to do it for around eight months. But these Republicans were more patient back then. They all thought they’d end up getting what they wanted out of McCarthy if they waited long enough. With the new Speaker, there will be no such patience.
There’s also another reality that nobody talks about, which is that for all the numerous ways in which he’s a doofus, McCarthy is also the kind of affable glad-hander who was really good at raising campaign money for the entire Republican House – another reason he lasted as Speaker for as long as he did.
Mike Johnson, a backbencher nobody who got the Speaker job specifically because he’s a backbencher nobody, isn’t going to have any of that working for him. The only thing he has going for him is the fact that he was the last candidate standing. For House Republicans it was either get behind Johnson or let the Democrats pick a Speaker, so they chose Johnson. But how long before the threat of Speaker Hakeem Jeffries is no longer a fresh memory for them? That’s right about when House Republicans will go back into their fiefdoms, and this new Speaker will begin to get ripped apart from within his own caucus.
There’s another thing that Mike Johnson has going against him right out of the gate: there are about three weeks left until another government shutdown deadline. The House Republicans in toss-up districts have already twice forced McCarthy to avoid a shutdown, first in May and again in September. It’s hard to imagine they’d have voted for Johnson to become Speaker unless they got similar assurances from him in return.
So give it three weeks and we’re about to find out precisely what Johnson promised the House Republicans in toss-up districts. If it turns out he’s already caved to them in terms of avoiding a shutdown, what’s the Crazy Caucus going to think of him then? And if Johnson then caves to the Crazy Caucus and comes out in favor of a shutdown, the House Republicans in toss-up districts could turn right around and oust him in favor of a bipartisan Speaker so that a shutdown doesn’t happen.
So “Speaker” Mike Johnson should enjoy these three weeks while he’s got them. That is, if House Republicans even manage to keep the peace for three weeks until the next shutdown deadline forces the issue. House Republicans in the New York area are already vowing to force a swift vote on expelling George Santos. If Johnson lets that expulsion happen, will Matt Gaetz start to worry that he’s next?
And this will all play out even as Mike Johnson faces immediate backlash from the media and the public for being such a documented right wing extremist, and as the media quickly digs in to try to uncover whatever personal scandals or financial scandals Johnson might have hiding in his closet. It’s going to be that kind of bumpy ride for Johnson. Tick tock.
