House midterm race shakeup

Twenty-four hours after a Democrat won a special election for a U.S. House seat in Alaska of all places, there is still widespread debate as to how much of the upset was caused by the particulars of this one race, and how much of it is due to actual Democratic Party momentum. But given that Alaska is just the latest in a recent string of House special elections where the Democrats have outperformed their expected numbers every time, it’s more than fair to call this the start of a trend.

To that end, a number of House races are now being reclassified by the experts. For instance, even though Alaska’s winner Mary Peltola will have to turn around and win again in November, she’ll now be doing so under far better circumstances. Cook Political Report, which had the Alaska special election rated “Likely Republican,” now says that Peltola’s November reelection bid is a “Toss up.” More to the point, multiple other House races have also been shaken up.

House Democrat Abigail Spanberger has just seen her reelection prospects upgraded from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat.” And Democratic House candidate Robert Zimmerman, running in NY-03, also just saw his race upgraded from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat.” This means they’ll still need your support in order to win, but these races are clearly trending in the right direction.

Meanwhile, House Democrats Greg Stanton and David Trone both just got great news, with Cook having reclassified their reelection races from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” – precisely the kind of trend you like to see.

Cook isn’t the only site that sees things trending in this direction. The odds of the Democrats winning the House has gone up by about twelve points over the past month, according to FiveThirtyEight. In fact one of FiveThirtyEight’s three models says the Republicans are only “slightly” favored to win the House. With the Democrats clearly having the momentum, now is the time for you to dive into these highly competitive House races. Donate, volunteer in person or online, spread the word, and let’s go win this:

Toss-up races

Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

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Lean-R races

Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

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Lean-D races

Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at promoting them evenly. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.