House midterm race shakeup
Twenty-four hours after a Democrat won a special election for a U.S. House seat in Alaska of all places, there is still widespread debate as to how much of the upset was caused by the particulars of this one race, and how much of it is due to actual Democratic Party momentum. But given that Alaska is just the latest in a recent string of House special elections where the Democrats have outperformed their expected numbers every time, it’s more than fair to call this the start of a trend.
To that end, a number of House races are now being reclassified by the experts. For instance, even though Alaska’s winner Mary Peltola will have to turn around and win again in November, she’ll now be doing so under far better circumstances. Cook Political Report, which had the Alaska special election rated “Likely Republican,” now says that Peltola’s November reelection bid is a “Toss up.” More to the point, multiple other House races have also been shaken up.
House Democrat Abigail Spanberger has just seen her reelection prospects upgraded from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat.” And Democratic House candidate Robert Zimmerman, running in NY-03, also just saw his race upgraded from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat.” This means they’ll still need your support in order to win, but these races are clearly trending in the right direction.
Meanwhile, House Democrats Greg Stanton and David Trone both just got great news, with Cook having reclassified their reelection races from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” – precisely the kind of trend you like to see.
Cook isn’t the only site that sees things trending in this direction. The odds of the Democrats winning the House has gone up by about twelve points over the past month, according to FiveThirtyEight. In fact one of FiveThirtyEight’s three models says the Republicans are only “slightly” favored to win the House. With the Democrats clearly having the momentum, now is the time for you to dive into these highly competitive House races. Donate, volunteer in person or online, spread the word, and let’s go win this:
Toss-up races
Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-R races
Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-D races
Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at promoting them evenly. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.
