Horse in midstream
President Abraham Lincoln famously framed his 1864 campaign by saying that you don’t change horses in midstream. Of course he was running for reelection in the midst of civil unrest, a treasonous political movement, and opponents who were unfit for office. Very different from 2024 – but not really.
Here in 2024, President Joe Biden is running for reelection at a time when there’s no Confederacy treason movement but there is a MAGA treason movement. And while Lincoln ran against George B. McClellan, a legitimate candidate who was simply an unfit choice, Biden is running against the leader of the treason movement. It would be like if Lincoln had to run in 1864 against Jefferson Davis.
Of course Lincoln had the advantage of the southern states not being able to vote at all, because they’d left the union, which helps explain why he won by double digits. Biden in 2024 doesn’t have that advantage. And yet Lincoln didn’t have the advantage of running against someone who’s senile and is about to go on criminal trial.
All that aside, last night President Biden reminded mainstream Americans why you don’t change horses in midstream. There are circumstances where it’s appropriate to ditch a President after one term and move on. This isn’t one of them. Americans wouldn’t be rolling the dice on some newcomer by voting Biden out. They’d be putting the worst President in history back in power.
But it’s not always enough for an incumbent President to simply point out why his opponent would be a disaster, even if most Americans know that the opponent would be a disaster. The incumbent President has to show Americans that he’s viable, that he’s the right answer, that he can get you across that stream, that he’s not a proverbial dead horse that needs to be swapped out. And last night, during his State of the Union address, President Biden did precisely that.
Remember, it doesn’t matter that not all Americans like Biden. Nor does it matter all that much that most of the media is being dishonestly unfair to Biden while chasing ratings. Nor does it matter that Biden’s poll numbers are mediocre, given that Biden’s Democratic Party has spent the past three years consistently outperforming the polls, which are clearly inaccurate.
What matters is that President Biden stood up and successfully explained to the majority of Americans why they’d do well sticking with him during these prosperous but exceedingly dangerous times and why the other guy would be an unfettered disaster. Biden did exactly what he needed to do. Now he just has to see it through.
