Holy crap, the Democrats might win the House and Senate after all
Months ago, Palmer Report said that the Democrats could win the House and Senate in the midterms, if all of you were willing to start putting in the work on the most competitive races. Sure enough, we’re after midnight on election night, and the House and Senate are both coming down to the wire.
Remarkably, the Democrats keep winning most of the competitive House races that have been called thus far. This includes a number of House races that were mathematically rated as toss ups but got almost no national media attention. Many of these House races were on Palmer Report’s list of highly competitive races that we urged you to invest your time in.
The Democrats will need to keep winning more of these competitive House races late tonight and tomorrow (and maybe longer than that). But thus far the Democrats are probably looking at a 50-50 chance of winning the House, which is something that literally no one in the mainstream media said was possible.
The Democrats are having more of a mixed night so far in the Senate. The Democrats have won the Senate races in New Hampshire, Colorado, Washington. But they’ve lost the Senate races in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.
This sets up a scenario where the Democrats can still get to a dominant fifty-two Senate seats by winning all five of Pennsylvania (seemingly looking good), Arizona (potentially looking good), Nevada (close), Georgia (close, perhaps going to a runoff), and Wisconsin (iffy). Failing that, the Democrats can retain a basic Senate majority of fifty seats by winning any three of the above five races.
So we’ll see what happens. Much of this will come down to waiting for mail ballots to be counted. It could take a few days to get results in some of these close Senate races. If the House majority comes down to the moderate suburban districts in California, those results could take days or weeks. And if the Senate majority comes down to a Georgia runoff, that could be a month.
In that sense “election night” is still just getting started, and will end up looking more like election week or election month. But the bottom line is this: everyone said we were in big trouble in the Senate and we were going to get blown out in the House. That has clearly turned out not to be the case. Win or lose, these midterms are every bit as close as we said they would be all along. THANK YOU to those of you who spent the past few months putting in the work on the most competitive races. You’ve put the Democrats in contention to win this.
