Here’s how the Democrats take control of the House
How close are we to seeing Donald Trump criminally indicted for espionage? With the grand jury now back in session, could happen as soon as this week. For all we know it could happen tomorrow. We’re that close now. And it’s going to utterly dominate the news cycle for awhile, as it should. So, while I still can, I’m going to use this Sunday morning to talk about something else entirely: 2024.
That’s right, now more than ever, I consider Trump and 2024 to be two entirely different discussions. I don’t expect Trump to be a viable part of the 2024 election. But even if he does somehow manage to snag the Republican presidential nomination on his way to prison, that’s still not going to fundamentally impact what I consider to be the heart of the 2024 election: the competitive House and Senate races. Yes, it’s only June 2023. And yes, I’m going there already.
I keep thinking about how much of a focus we put on the competitive House and Senate races in 2022, and how much it seemed to help with the outcome. We were supposed to lose 30-40 House seats; instead we came within five seats of the majority. We were supposed to struggle in the Senate; instead we slightly expanded our lead.
That’s because only about ten percent of all House races, and about twenty percent of all Senate races, ever end up being even close to competitive. If you think it through, it’s easy to understand why. Think about the far left liberal House district that AOC represents. Would a Republican have any chance of winning that district in 2024? Of course not. It’s the same thing with the far right conservative House district that Marjorie Taylor Greene represents. Would a Democrat have any chance of winning that district in 2024? Of course not.
Not every House district leans to quite so much of an extreme. But in reality, about 90% of House districts either lean far enough left or far enough right that the opposition party just doesn’t have enough warm bodies to vote for them, no matter how many TV ads they might run. No Republican is winning in Ted Lieu’s liberal district in Los Angeles. No Democrat is winning in Chip Roy’s rural Texas district.
Maybe it shouldn’t work this way, but it does. And we’re not going to be able to fundamentally change the system between now and 2024. All we can do for now is focus on winning under the current conditions, and after we win in 2024, we can spend 2025 trying to change the system or change the hearts and minds of far right lost souls. For now it’s about winning the majority – and that comes down solely to the seats that are competitive to begin with.
Cook Political isn’t the only respected nonpartisan rating outlet, but it’s the one I rely on most often due to its track record. Cook puts the 2024 House races into eight categories: Solid Democrat, Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Democrat-held Toss Up, Republican-held Toss Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican, Solid Republican.
In terms of being competitive, we can immediately eliminate four of those categories right off the bat. The “Solid” House races are the ones where, based on ideological leanings, one party is basically guaranteed to win by ten points or more. The “Likely” House races are the ones where one party is basically guaranteed to win by five points or more. Those are not the kinds of needles that we can move. These are the kinds of races where the opposition party can spend millions of dollars on TV ads and still lose by the same margin they were always going to lose by. Many of you know the frustration of having dumped some of your own money into these kinds of races in 2020 and 2022, only to find they are indeed just as unwinnable as I said they were.
There are only two categories of House races that are near-guaranteed to end up being competitive: Democrat-held Toss Up and Republican-held Toss Up. They’re really the same category, and the only reason to split them up is a pragmatic one. This early on, we generally already know who the 2024 Democratic candidates are going to be in the Democrat-held Toss Up races, because they’re the incumbents and in most instances are seeking reelection. In contrast, in the Republican-held Toss Up races, only a handful of the 2024 Democratic candidates have emerged, because it’s super-early for non-incumbents to be getting into the race.
Most of the Toss Up races end up having super close results. This is where 85% of the action is. Last time we put our focus on these Toss Up races, and ended up winning a large majority of them – which is a big part of why we came so close to winning the majority. The kicker is that this time around, in 2024, there are only twenty-two House races currently rated as “Toss Up” by Cook. If we can win about three-quarters of these Toss Up races, and if all the other House races go in the direction they’re already leaning, that gives the Democrats the majority.
Beyond those toss-up races, the only House races that ever end up even having a chance of being competitive are the “Lean Democrat” and “Lean Republican” races. These are races where one candidate is expected to win, but by less than three points. This means we at least have a chance to get in there and make a difference in the outcome.
But you have to be careful with “Lean” races. For 2024 there are twelve “Lean Democrat” House races and eight “Lean Republican” House races. But the vast majority of them end up going the direction they’re leaning in, no matter how much money or resources the other side dumps into them. Each cycle you can reasonably expect one or two “Lean Democrat” race to be won by a Republican, and one or two “Lean Republican” races to be won by Democrat.
So as of now 2024 has twenty-two “Toss Up” House races that will primarily determine the House majority, plus another twenty “Lean D” or “Lean R” races that will have a lesser impact on the House majority – and that’s it.
Out of the entire 435 seat House, only about 10% of the races even have a chance to be competitive, and only about 5% of them are guaranteed to be competitive. The other 90% of races are already decided, at least for this upcoming cycle. Again, it shouldn’t be this way, but it is. Unless you live in one of those non-competitive House districts and it’s personal for you, there’s just no way to justify putting your personal resources into lost causes when you can instead direct your resources to winning the crucial House majority.
Let’s put it another way: if more of you had spent 2022 putting your donations and retweets into the “boring” toss up House races that I was highlighting, instead of throwing your money away on lost causes in the far right districts where Majorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan were already guaranteed to win in blowouts, Hakeem Jeffries would likely be Speaker of the House right now. House Democrats’ five most competitive losses were by a combined total of about 3,300. That’s a total that we could have absolutely overcome, if more of you had steered your resources to the races that were going to be the closest.
But this is all a learning experience, and what we didn’t get right last time, we can always learn from. So let’s get it right this time. You’re never going to change a thing by donating to Democrats running in far right House districts against Republican villains. It might make you feel good in the moment, but then on election night you end up kicking yourself when you realize the majority is coming down to a few of those super close toss up races that Bill Palmer spent the entire election cycle refusing to shut up about.
By the way, there are always going to be excuses floated for why we shouldn’t bother. Gerrymandering? Yes, that’s a real thing. Voter suppression laws? Yep, those are troublesome too. But so what? These things aren’t magic wands. Any given Republican cheating tactic can only move the needle by a small increment. We can lazily sit around complaining about these things, and lose due to our own inaction. Or we can accept the fact that these are the parameters we’re working with, and figure out where and how to smartly put in the work required to win. There’s always a winning gameplan, and it’s always simply a matter of following it. The only two ways to lose are if you just sit around complaining about how unfair the map is, or if you waste your resources on the races you know you aren’t going to win anyway. And I think we’re getting better about avoiding those two pitfalls.
So yeah, I think we’re going to win the House majority in 2024. But not because these things win themselves. They never do. I’m confident about the House in 2024 specifically because I believe that enough of you are now firmly on board with focusing on the competitive House races that always decide the majority. I think we’re in a good position with the Senate in 2024 as well, but that’s a different lengthy article for another time.
