Here comes the verdict… but what about the sentence?

As I write this we could be fewer than 8 days away from a verdict in the Trump election fraud criminal case. The question on everyone’s mind is, what happens next? Let’s examine the possibilities.

The first possibility is Trump could be acquitted. At that point Trump will be immediately free to go. The prosecution will not be able to retry him. Legal experts generally agree that this is not likely. The evidence against him is simply too strong, and Trump’s legal team has presented a case that is weak, argumentative, petty, clearly dishonest and frankly odd. They have probably made no friends with any member of the jury, and Trump’s court-side demeanour has been highly detrimental to his case. He mutters, he sleeps, he is an unattractive, unsympathetic defendant.

The prosecution’s case, on the other hand, has been masterful. The documentary evidence alone is indisputable. The witnesses against Trump, especially Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels, have been moving, brilliant and believable.

If a guilty verdict is not returned by the jury, then it will probably be because one or two jurors are either biassed or stupid. This would result in a hung jury, at which point the prosecution will simply refile the case and try him again. Most such instances of a second trial end in a guilty verdict. A famous recent example of this was the trial of Bill Cosby.

Therefore, if the jury returns a quick verdict then that is almost certainly good news for the prosecution. If they take an inordinate amount of time to come to a verdict, that could suggest a hung jury.

But legal analysts generally agree that the most likely outcome will be that Trump will be found guilty by all 12 jurors on all 34 counts against him. Since the counts are virtual carbon copies of each other, expect a guilty verdict on all 34 counts. Trump’s status will then change. He will cease being a defendant. He will become a convicted felon.

It is then that the trial will enter the Penalty Phase. The prosecution will argue for prison time. The defence will argue for something far less. At some point Judge Juan Merchan will announce a sentencing date. That date will be fairly soon, on the order of a week or two. Judge Merchan will then go away by himself and consider a sentence that he regards as commensurate with the severity of Trump’s crimes.

The Judge will first consider those elements that militate in Trump’s favour. On the plus side, Trump has no criminal record, his crimes were of a nonviolent nature, he is a former US president, and so on.

The negative elements against Trump that the judge will consider are substantial. Trump has never demonstrated any remorse for his criminal conduct. If Trump is not sent to prison he will probably continue to stochastically terrorise his victims and the witnesses against him. He will almost certainly seek physical and psychological vengeance on the witnesses and the officers of the court. He is thoroughly unregenerate and unrepentant. Above all, his crimes may have robbed the American people of the candidate for president that they clearly preferred, a majority of three and a half million.

However, the precedent is not favourable for a prison sentence. Statistically, only one in ten crimes of similar magnitude end in a prison sentence. The usual sentences included parole, substantial fines and possible restricted movement, including home confinement. But Trump is a unique case, so the usual outcomes, good or bad, may not apply. We are in dark waters here without stars to aid our navigation.

As is true with most future outcomes, there is no fait accompli. We just don’t know what will happen. We can only hope. But despite his encroaching mental and physical deterioration, Trump remains a dangerous man, and we underestimate that danger at our peril. I hope, above all, that Judge Merchan thoroughly understands this, and his understanding will lead him to conclude that no one is safe until Donald Trump is in prison. And maybe not even then. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.